The environment is shaped by two sources of temporal uncertainty: the discrete probability of whether an event will occur and-if it does-the continuous probability of when it will happen. These two types of uncertainty are fundamental to every form of anticipatory behavior including learning, decision-making, and motor planning. It remains unknown how the brain models the two uncertainty parameters and how they interact in anticipation. It is commonly assumed that the discrete probability of whether an event will occur has a fixed effect on event expectancy over time. In contrast, we first demonstrate that this pattern is highly dynamic and monotonically increases across time. Intriguingly, this behavior is independent of the continuous probability of when an event will occur. The effect of this continuous probability on anticipation is commonly proposed to be driven by the hazard rate (HR) of events. We next show that the HR fails to account for behavior and propose a model of event expectancy based on the probability density function of events. Our results hold for both vision and audition, suggesting independence of the representation of the two uncertainties from sensory input modality. These findings enrich the understanding of fundamental anticipatory processes and have provocative implications for many aspects of behavior and its neural underpinnings.
You may also like
Event boundaries shape temporal organization of memory...
June 15, 2022Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics
Naturalistic viewing conditions can increase task...
June 14, 2022Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics
Higher-order olfactory neurons in the lateral horn...
June 13, 2022Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology
Getting in the Groove: Why samba makes everyone want...
Estimating the pace of change
April 26, 2022Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics
Out of rhythm: Compromised precision of theta-gamma...
April 26, 2022Max Planck Institute for Human Development